International arrivals to Montenegro could approach three million by 2030. For a country preparing for EU membership, that projection points to substantial opportunity. It also raises a more difficult question: can Montenegro convert continued tourism growth into a stronger, more resilient economy without weakening the very assets on which that growth depends?
When tourism numbers rise, success is easy to describe. More visitors mean more demand, more investment interest and, in theory, more economic activity. But growth can conceal as much as it reveals.
A destination can welcome more guests while putting increasing pressure on infrastructure. Hotels can achieve strong occupancy while margins remain under pressure. Investment can accelerate while the local workforce shrinks. Visitor numbers can rise while communities begin to question how much tourism is enough.
Those tensions are becoming increasingly relevant for Montenegro.
At the BEST STAY Regional Hospitality Forum, held on 23 September at Avala Resort & Villas in Budva, futurist Dr Ian Yeoman of the European Transformative Futures Institute argued that Montenegro is entering a period in which the quality of its tourism decisions may matter more than the pace of tourism growth.
His starting point was relatively optimistic.
Tourism has repeatedly shown that it can recover from major disruption. The industry has come through financial crises, geopolitical instability and the COVID-19 pandemic. Demand for travel has proved remarkably resilient.
For Montenegro, Yeoman’s projections suggest international arrivals could approach three million by 2030. The more interesting question is what happens if they do.
Growth is not a strategy
Montenegro already relies heavily on tourism, and further growth would bring obvious economic benefits. Yet the country is also dealing with many of the constraints facing mature tourism destinations across Europe: pressure on labour supply, infrastructure needs, climate risk, rising costs and stronger competition from neighbouring Mediterranean markets.
EU accession adds another layer.
Membership could improve access to capital, funding mechanisms, markets and expertise. At the same time, it would bring Montenegro into even closer competition with destinations that have spent decades improving transport links, training systems, tourism infrastructure, digital capability and destination management.
The assumption that EU membership alone will strengthen tourism competitiveness therefore deserves scrutiny.
At the forum, BEST STAY owner and director Martina Lucić Čanak argued that the most important work needs to begin before accession.
“EU membership will not automatically make tourism more competitive. The work starts now. Hoteliers, institutions and business partners should already be asking what needs to change in people, investment, operational security, revenue and new product development. Funds, investment and new markets create opportunities, but value is created only when an opportunity becomes something that can actually be delivered and sustained.”
Her point goes to the centre of the issue. Montenegro does not lack tourism potential. The question is whether the country can convert that potential into a coherent tourism model.
Four possible futures
Rather than offer a single forecast, Yeoman presented four possible scenarios for Montenegro.
One envisaged continued growth towards five million visitors, supported by stronger sustainability measures.
Another explored a regenerative tourism model in which tourism contributes not only to GDP and employment but also to community wellbeing and environmental restoration.
A third examined what the sector might look like under conditions of economic decline.
The fourth considered a more exclusive, premium tourism model focused on higher-value demand rather than maximum visitor volume.
The scenarios were not presented as predictions. They were designed to expose the choices hidden behind familiar tourism targets.
A country aiming for five million visitors has to think very differently about airports, roads, utilities, housing, workforce and destination capacity than one deliberately pursuing lower-volume, higher-value tourism.
A regenerative model raises a different set of questions again: who benefits from tourism, how much value stays within local communities, and whether destination performance should be judged only by arrivals and revenue.
“We question the future so we can stop worrying about what might happen and instead start making smart choices to shape it ourselves,” Yeoman told the audience.
That is a useful distinction. Forecasts describe where current trends may lead. Strategy decides whether that is where a destination wants to go.
What should Montenegro optimise for?
Tourism policy has traditionally been comfortable with metrics such as arrivals, overnight stays and total revenue. They are easy to count and easy to communicate. They are less useful when the real question is economic quality.
If Montenegro reaches three million international arrivals by 2030, what should improve alongside that growth:
- Revenue per visitor
- Hotel profitability
- Average salaries
- Length of season
- Direct booking share
- Local sourcing
- Investment returns
- Resident satisfaction
- Infrastructure quality
- Environmental resilience?
The choice of metric matters because it changes the decisions that follow.
More arrivals may justify additional capacity. A focus on value per guest may instead favour better product, stronger positioning and more disciplined demand management. A focus on resilience could shift capital towards infrastructure, workforce development and year-round business rather than further peak-season expansion.
This is where the debate around Montenegro’s next tourism phase becomes less comfortable, but more useful.
It is possible for a tourism economy to grow and still underperform. It is possible for hotels to be busy while profitability weakens. It is possible for investment to increase while destination quality deteriorates. And it is possible to attract more visitors while creating less value per visitor.
From European integration to business integration
Nikola Kasalo, CEO of Beppler & Jacobson Montenegro, framed EU integration as more than an institutional process.
“European integration should also mean integration of knowledge, standards and business culture. Montenegro needs tourism that creates value, not only turnover.”
That distinction between turnover and value is likely to become increasingly important. If EU accession brings stronger investment flows and greater demand, Montenegro will need businesses capable of absorbing that opportunity. That means better-trained people, more resilient operations, stronger digital infrastructure, more sophisticated commercial management and tourism products capable of competing on something other than location and price. It also means deciding where growth should happen, what kind of development should be encouraged and where the limits should be.
Those are not questions the market will answer neatly on its own.
The advantage Montenegro still has
Montenegro is not starting from zero. It already has international recognition, strong natural assets, an established coastal tourism economy and growing investor interest.
What it still has, perhaps more importantly, is room to choose.
Destinations further along the tourism development curve often find themselves trying to reverse decisions made years earlier: overdevelopment, dependence on low-value volume, housing pressure, infrastructure congestion or tourism models that no longer match what residents or higher-value guests want.
Montenegro still has the opportunity to make some of those choices before they become difficult to undo. That may prove more valuable than any individual growth forecast.
Yeoman ended his presentation with a simple proposition:
“The future is not something to be predicted, it is something to be designed.”
For Montenegro, the design brief is becoming clearer. The country is likely to receive more visitors. It may receive substantially more. The real test will be whether, by 2030, Montenegro can point not only to a larger tourism industry, but to a better one: more profitable, more resilient, more competitive and more valuable to the people who live there.
That is the conversation BEST STAY intends to keep on the table. Because three million arrivals would be a milestone. What they leave behind will matter more.
P.S. Every Early Bird ticket includes the Hospitality Playbook 2026-2027, the lessons from last year's Best Stay distilled into practical 90-day action plans for owners, GMs, revenue, sales, marketing, HR and operations.